"Behold! My newly improved FPL Incorporated SeasonTickerSpreadSheet-inator!"
GW21 onwards
After Ozil's untimely blank as a very popular captain pick, GW20 was a horror show for the majority of managers without the services of Alderweireld and/or Koscielny to call upon. Okay, so 33 points, red arrows and being knocked down to 15,918 in the overall rankings wasn't quite what I hoped my New Year's Resolution would herald. "But I get up again, [FPL] never gonna keep me down."
That noise you can hear all around you is not the sound of an approaching swarm of locusts, but rather the cacophonous clicking of WildCards being activated! With this in mind, I've given my 'Transfer Business' section top billing in this preview.
Transfer Business
Personally, I'm resisting the siren call of the second wildcard. I'm waiting to see what collateral damage occurs first in the 2 Cup games to be played in 5 days by EVE, LIV, MCI and STO. In the meantime, I'm choosing to sit tight and suffer a fall in my team value, which recently reached a high tidemark of 108.3m.
I've not seen any reference to this elsewhere, but after studying football fixtures dates, it seems to me that GW25 could be a mini-DGW for the League Cup finalists. The only alternative would be for either finalist to run the risk of a triple gameweek in either GW34 or GW37 if they also reach the semi-finals of the FA Cup. For now though, we do know that two to four teams from AVL, EVE, LIV, MCI, NEW & STO will have a blank GW27, so we ought to be mindful to not overload our squad with players from the teams concerned. Unfortunately, we won't know for sure who they are until after GW23.
Apologies for the greater disparity here between last gameweek's preview and this, hence 4 new entries, but the expectation is for greater consistency here on in.
CPL remain
top of the crop, despite their 3-0 defeat to CHE, and
are expected to be still there next time around, which is good news for
this Hennessey and Ward holder, as well as for those holding Dann, currently the 5th most highly owned defender (23%+).
The bad news for those with the 4th most highly owned defender, namely Clyne, is that LIV are set to be a 'here today, gone tomorrow' kind of team come the eve of GW21, as they are forecast to plummet from 2nd best in my rankings to a lowly 10th. Even so, my form ticker gives them 4 good chances out of the next 5, so there's no need to panic yet. And there's plenty of time to reassess things before the natural looking exit point of GW27.
The top budget enabler in FPL right now looks to be R Bennett as NOR have come straight in from the cold to 3rd place. Under the old system, they'd have been rated as 9th best and flown completely under the radar.
BOU would have been slightly over-rated as 3rd best the old way, and ARS overlooked in 8th place, but they now sit rightfully in 4th and 5th. Fortunately for me, my much lamented transferring in of van Dijk rather than a SWA DEF a couple of gameweeks ago, looks much better in this light (6th vs 8th this GW and 4th vs 8th next GW).
The competition for our defensive slots is very strong at present with plenty of good alternatives around, including from WAT, TOT and LEI, who are all expected to (re)enter the rankings for GW22, with ARS, LIV and WHM expected to make way by dropping to 9th, 10th and 11th, albeit with an equal number of favourable clean sheet prospects.
That noise you can hear all around you is not the sound of an approaching swarm of locusts, but rather the cacophonous clicking of WildCards being activated! With this in mind, I've given my 'Transfer Business' section top billing in this preview.
Transfer Business
Personally, I'm resisting the siren call of the second wildcard. I'm waiting to see what collateral damage occurs first in the 2 Cup games to be played in 5 days by EVE, LIV, MCI and STO. In the meantime, I'm choosing to sit tight and suffer a fall in my team value, which recently reached a high tidemark of 108.3m.
*Potential mini-DOUBLE GAMEWEEK*
I've not seen any reference to this elsewhere, but after studying football fixtures dates, it seems to me that GW25 could be a mini-DGW for the League Cup finalists. The only alternative would be for either finalist to run the risk of a triple gameweek in either GW34 or GW37 if they also reach the semi-finals of the FA Cup. For now though, we do know that two to four teams from AVL, EVE, LIV, MCI, NEW & STO will have a blank GW27, so we ought to be mindful to not overload our squad with players from the teams concerned. Unfortunately, we won't know for sure who they are until after GW23.
ATTACK
EVE remain top of the pops when it comes to expected goals, so Lukaku wouldn't to my mind be the player to make way for Aguero. ARS climb
one place in spite of struggling to a solitary goal victory over NEW last
time, and despite goals not looking easy to come by in their next 2 fixtures. So now wouldn't be the time I'd be bringing Ozil in if I didn't already have him. Nor would I be supplementing him with Giroud or Ramsey just now. These two teams are expected to still be occupying the same top two berths in my
GW22 preview.
As anticipated in my last blog, STO have risen quickly through the predicted goals ranks, from 8th to 3rd, which might be where they peak, but nevertheless, Arnie's burgeoning ownership have a strong chance of being rewarded handsomely for their investment. Moreover, there is also the tantalising possibility of a DGW consisting of 2 home games vs EVE & AVL in GW25.
BOU are the only other climber (from 7th to 5th), and as they are also a new entry (4th) in my Clean Sheets chart, their multiple 5th midfielder options look ideal for those looking to free up cash to buy a certain diminuitive Argentinian forward.
Speaking of new entries, MCI re-enter the fray in 7th place, and are expected to rise to 5th next time around, whereas CHE make a belated seasonal bow into 8th, but are expected to leapfrog MCI by a couple of places when my GW22 preview comes around. That said, the forecast is for about only a goal's difference between the 3rd and 10th most prolific teams, so there's unlikely to be any decisive edge. Even so, Costa could yet prove to be a better option than Aguero for those brave (foolish?) enough to go without Kun.
LEI's descent down the scoring charts from 2nd to 6th, with a further slip to 8th expected next time around, coincides with reports of Vardy undergoing minor surgery on his groin, and a mass exodus seems both likely and justifiable. These charts might also spell the end of the party for Ighalo owners with effect from GW24 perhaps, as WAT drop away, but maybe I'm just bitter, because I never got an invite!
Yet
another eureka moment this week saw me realise that rather than ranking
teams with the same number of good clean sheet prospects by how many
goals they were predicted to let in over the entire next 6 gameweeks
fixture run, it made much more sense to do so according to how many they were expected to concede in only those GWs where the probability of clean sheets was deemed to be high.BOU are the only other climber (from 7th to 5th), and as they are also a new entry (4th) in my Clean Sheets chart, their multiple 5th midfielder options look ideal for those looking to free up cash to buy a certain diminuitive Argentinian forward.
Speaking of new entries, MCI re-enter the fray in 7th place, and are expected to rise to 5th next time around, whereas CHE make a belated seasonal bow into 8th, but are expected to leapfrog MCI by a couple of places when my GW22 preview comes around. That said, the forecast is for about only a goal's difference between the 3rd and 10th most prolific teams, so there's unlikely to be any decisive edge. Even so, Costa could yet prove to be a better option than Aguero for those brave (foolish?) enough to go without Kun.
LEI's descent down the scoring charts from 2nd to 6th, with a further slip to 8th expected next time around, coincides with reports of Vardy undergoing minor surgery on his groin, and a mass exodus seems both likely and justifiable. These charts might also spell the end of the party for Ighalo owners with effect from GW24 perhaps, as WAT drop away, but maybe I'm just bitter, because I never got an invite!
DEFENCE
Apologies for the greater disparity here between last gameweek's preview and this, hence 4 new entries, but the expectation is for greater consistency here on in.
The bad news for those with the 4th most highly owned defender, namely Clyne, is that LIV are set to be a 'here today, gone tomorrow' kind of team come the eve of GW21, as they are forecast to plummet from 2nd best in my rankings to a lowly 10th. Even so, my form ticker gives them 4 good chances out of the next 5, so there's no need to panic yet. And there's plenty of time to reassess things before the natural looking exit point of GW27.
The top budget enabler in FPL right now looks to be R Bennett as NOR have come straight in from the cold to 3rd place. Under the old system, they'd have been rated as 9th best and flown completely under the radar.
BOU would have been slightly over-rated as 3rd best the old way, and ARS overlooked in 8th place, but they now sit rightfully in 4th and 5th. Fortunately for me, my much lamented transferring in of van Dijk rather than a SWA DEF a couple of gameweeks ago, looks much better in this light (6th vs 8th this GW and 4th vs 8th next GW).
The competition for our defensive slots is very strong at present with plenty of good alternatives around, including from WAT, TOT and LEI, who are all expected to (re)enter the rankings for GW22, with ARS, LIV and WHM expected to make way by dropping to 9th, 10th and 11th, albeit with an equal number of favourable clean sheet prospects.
O Captain! My Captain!
Seemingly, most managers base their decision on who to captain purely on which players are in form. My approach is to ask which teams are likely to score the most goals that gameweek, and
see if there are any obvious candidates for the armband from those teams. The 8 teams identified by my spreadsheet as likely to score the most goals in GW21 are shown below:
Encouraging news then for undoubtedly popular captain picks Aguero and Costa, but potentially even more exciting for all those new Arnautovic owners if they have the stomach for a differential captain pick. I might yet be one of them, but I'm going to wait and see what unfolds first in the TWO Cup matches STO have to play before their next Prem League game. If Arnie comes through unscathed then I might well jump aboard the bandwagon. I'll also be keeping a close eye on developments with Walters though, as Jon will always have a special place in my heart after I captained him for his hattrick in GW24 last season!
Keeping Clean Sheets
My spreadsheet identifies the 7 teams below as least likely to concede goals in GW21:
This gameweek has plenty of potential, and I'll be surprised if there aren't at least 3 or 4 clean sheets from the 7 teams named above. With the one match ban that BOU captain Simon Francis picked up being served in the FA Cup, I see no reason for me to not transfer in DEF Charlie Daniels for my seemingly now redundant Danny Rose.
Last week, only 2 of the 7 teams I nominated as least likely to concede goals kept clean sheets. That said, it took a special goal from Gil to deny me (and SUN) another one, and WAT were still keeping MCI at bay with less than 10 minutes to play.
Predicted Scorelines
Disclaimer: Betting on correct scores IS a mug's game. These predictions are intended only as indicative of home teams' recent home form and away teams' recent away form.
Lastly, the screenshot below provides an overview of all teams' next 6 fixtures, from which all of the recommendations above are drawn:
Key: Dark blue is best and dark red the
worst. The top table relate to expected number of goals scored, and the bottom
one to expected goals conceded.
As ever, please feel free to comment or ask questions, either below or via my twitter account @barCOLEYna.
Please refer to my 'New Year's season ticker Resolution' blog for further insights into the 'philosophy' underpinning my approach to FPL.
Lastly, the screenshot below provides an overview of all teams' next 6 fixtures, from which all of the recommendations above are drawn:
As ever, please feel free to comment or ask questions, either below or via my twitter account @barCOLEYna.
Please refer to my 'New Year's season ticker Resolution' blog for further insights into the 'philosophy' underpinning my approach to FPL.
Coley.
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