The seasoned tournament poker players know when the time is right to change gears, and how best to change them. In poker, the critical phases are often the approach of the 'bubble' (prizemoney threshold), and when nearing 'the final table', which is when the number of players remaining can fit around one table. This is where the lion's share of the prizemoney is distributed.
GW32, with double gameweeks 33, 34 and 37 imminent, feels to me like a pivotal point in the FPL season, akin to the approach of the 'bubble'. At this stage, the weak players are preoccupied with consolidating their position, with not taking any risks, and lasting longer than their mini-league rivals.
In poker, the strong players look to exploit this conservatism by ramping up the risk-taking and trying to establish themselves as one of the tournament 'chip leaders' entering the final table, thereby giving themselves a better shot at winning the tournament. For them, the top prize is their goal, not simply 'min-cashing' as it's called when you win back what often amounts to not much more than your original stake.
With an overall rank of 1,478, and a commanding 175 points lead over my closest rival in my most important mini-league, I'm pretty much guaranteed at least a 'min-cash'. Many FPL managers in the top 10K will be in a similar position.
The question is whether we settle for seeing how high up in the top 1K we can finish by adopting a cautious approach? This is referred to as 'laddering' in poker, where players focus on moving up the prizemoney board simply by outlasting their opponents by letting them knock themselves out. Or do we go for broke and take risks to try to make the final table? In FPL terms, this would be to put ourselves in with a shout of winning the whole competition entering GW38!
Naturally, as a half-decent poker player, I'm going to be taking the looser, more aggressive approach. I'd much rather take risks to give myself a shot of making the final table, but have my overall rank suffer, than just ladder my way to a very respectable top 500 finish.
While everyone else is sitting tight and wanting to only play with aces, I'm going to be getting creative. Anyone can win with aces; the art of poker is winning with the hands that the other players would 'muck' (throw away). So whilst they're holding onto Kane and/or Alli, and Vardy and/or Mahrez, come DGW34 I'll be trying to scoop the pot with a Martial and Townsend combo maybe.
It's my turn, and I've played my WildCard with a view to playing my Triple Captain chip in GW33 and my Bench Boost chip in GW34. So it's your call, but I'm ALL IN!
Good luck at the tables y'all!
Coley a.k.a @barCOLEYna
